<HTML><FONT FACE=arial,helvetica><HTML><BODY BGCOLOR="#ffffff"><FONT BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=3 PTSIZE=12 FAMILY="SERIF" FACE="Times New Roman" LANG="0">Dear Ruediger and all,<BR>
<BR>
Surely we can do better than estimates and hints?<BR>
<BR>
Before the heroic liberator Kim Il-sung made figures a state secret,<BR>
the nefarious Japanese imperialists measured everything, and <BR>
published quite a lot of it. So this question will have an answer.<BR>
<BR>
I am away from my main library, but the Economist Intelligence Unit's<BR>
<I>North Korea Country Profile </I>says as follows:<BR>
<BR>
"After 1945 North Korea's population fell, owing to southward flight <BR>
and the Korean war, from 9.3m in 1946 to 8.5m in 1953. It then grew <BR>
quickly as death rates dropped while birth rates remained high. <BR>
By 1970 most people lived in cities. The labour force shifted accordingly, <BR>
although in 1993 one-third of workers (3.6m out of 11m) were still peasants."<BR>
<BR>
Full disclosure: I wrote this, some years ago. The numbers are doubtless nicked<BR>
- no pun intended - from the indispensable Eberstadt and Banister, whom <BR>
Balazs Szalontai rightly commends. I don't have mine to hand, but am<BR>
copying this to Dr E since I'm not sure if he subscribes to this list or not.<BR>
<BR>
Yonhap's monster <I>North Korea Handbook</I> (2003) on p44, table 5 has the<BR>
same official figure (less rounded) of 9,257,000 for 1946. Given that by 1949<BR>
it had risen to 9,622,000, this annual rate of growth of just under 122,000 suggests<BR>
that the 1945 total of 9,135,000 conveyed by Sonia Lee is about right. <BR>
<BR>
In fact uncannily so. Dare one wonder if Kim Doo Sub simply took the 1946<BR>
and 1949 figures reported by the DPRK to UNFPA in 1987 (better late than never)<BR>
and subtracted 122,000 to get a number for 1945? <BR>
<BR>
If so, this begs questions about the rate of leakage - in either direction - <BR>
across a 38th Parallel then slightly more permeable than the later DMZ.<BR>
Are there estimates for this at all? Which reminds me:<BR>
<BR>
Again from memory because not to hand, Gregory Henderson in <I>Politics of the Vortex<BR>
</I>has some graphic passages about the infant South Korea - not sure whether USAMGIK<BR>
or ROK at this point; probably the former - which was a pretty chaotic place already, <BR>
being all but overwhelmed by an influx of incomers. But the bulk of these, if I recall,<BR>
were returnees from Japan - more than a million? - rather than refugees from the North.<BR>
<BR>
And while thinking, fondly, of Old Korea Hands: Besides the further sources mentioned <BR>
by Kirk Larson, I'm pretty sure that either or both of the redoubtable McCune <BR>
brothers will have some of these numbers, in their books written soon after this time.<BR>
<BR>
Finally, imho North Korea's future demography is at least as interesting<BR>
as historically. (Old Soviet - or possibly Polish - joke:<BR>
"Only the future is certain; the past is always changing.")<BR>
I have a letter on this in the next issue of <I>Foreign Policy.<BR>
</I><BR>
cheers<BR>
Aidan FC<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=2 PTSIZE=10 FAMILY="SERIF" FACE="Times New Roman" LANG="0">AIDAN FOSTER-CARTER<BR>
Honorary Senior Research Fellow in Sociology & Modern Korea, Leeds University <BR>
Home address: 17 Birklands Road, Shipley, West Yorkshire, BD18 3BY, UK <BR>
tel: +44(0) 1274 588586 (alt) +44(0) 1264 737634 mobile: +44(0) 7970 741307 <BR>
fax: +44(0) 1274 773663 ISDN: +44(0) 1274 589280<BR>
Email: afostercarter@aol.com (alt) afostercarter@yahoo.com website: www.aidanfc.net<BR>
[Please use @aol; but if any problems, please try @yahoo too - and let me know, so I can chide AOL]<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=3 PTSIZE=12 FAMILY="SERIF" FACE="Times New Roman" LANG="0"><BR>
________________<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=2 PTSIZE=10 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">Subj: <B>Re: [KS] Population in North Korea 1945 </B> <BR>
Date: 23/03/2006 06:32:50 GMT Standard Time <BR>
From: <A HREF="mailto:aoverl@yahoo.co.uk">aoverl@yahoo.co.uk</A> <BR>
Reply-to: <A HREF="mailto:Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws">Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws</A> <BR>
To: <A HREF="mailto:Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws">Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws</A> <BR>
<I>Sent from the Internet (Details)</I> <BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Dear Ruediger,<BR>
<BR>
the most detailed work on the subject is probably the book of Nicholas Eberstadt and Judith Banister, "The Population of North Korea" (1992). As far as I remember, the last Japanese census was held in 1944 or so.<BR>
<BR>
Best,<BR>
Balazs<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=3 PTSIZE=12 FAMILY="SERIF" FACE="Times New Roman" LANG="0"><BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=2 PTSIZE=10 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">Subj: <B>Re: [KS] Population in North Korea 1945 </B> <BR>
Date: 23/03/2006 06:31:21 GMT Standard Time <BR>
From: <A HREF="mailto:slee@loc.gov">slee@loc.gov</A> <BR>
Reply-to: <A HREF="mailto:Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws">Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws</A> <BR>
To: <A HREF="mailto:Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws">Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws</A> <BR>
<I>Sent from the Internet (Details)</I> <BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Dear Ruediger Frank:<BR>
<BR>
Sarah Kim, researcher of the Federal Research Division at the Library of Congress, found this figure a while ago. <BR>
<BR>
Kim, Doo Sub. "The transition of population in Korean Penninsula, 1910-1990: Comparison of South and North," Korea Institute for Peace Affairs, 5, No.4, December 1993, 209.<BR>
The population of North Korea in 1945 was estimated at 9,135,000.<BR>
<BR>
Hope this is of use.<BR>
<BR>
Sonya Lee<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Reference Specialist<BR>
Korean Section, Asian Division<BR>
Library of Congress<BR>
Tel: 202 - 707-2991<BR>
Email: <A HREF="mailto:slee@loc.gov">slee@loc.gov</A><BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=3 PTSIZE=12 FAMILY="SERIF" FACE="Times New Roman" LANG="0"><BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
In a message dated 23/03/2006 23:06:02 GMT Standard Time, kwlarsen@gwu.edu writes:<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=2 PTSIZE=10 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0"><BR>
<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE=CITE style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">Subj:<B>Re: [KS] Population in North Korea 1945 </B><BR>
Date:23/03/2006 23:06:02 GMT Standard Time<BR>
From:<A HREF="mailto:kwlarsen@gwu.edu">kwlarsen@gwu.edu</A><BR>
Reply-to:<A HREF="mailto:Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws">Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws</A><BR>
To:<A HREF="mailto:Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws">Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws</A><BR>
<I>Sent from the Internet </I><BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
A few other places to look for population data:<BR>
<BR>
Trewartha, Glenn T., and Wilbur Zelinsky. "Population Distribution and Change in Korea 1925-1949." <I>Geographical Review</I> 45, no. 1 (1955): 1-26.<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Taeuber, Irene B. "The Population Potential of Postwar Korea." <I>Far Eastern Quarterly</I> 5, no. 3 (1946): 289-307.<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
United States. Dept. of State. Division of Functional Intelligence. <I>Population and Economic Data on the Zones of Occupation in Korea</I>, <I>[R & a Report]</I>. Washington: Dept. of State, Division of International and Functional Intelligence, 1946.<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Kirk W. Larsen <BR>
Korea Foundation Assistant Professor of <BR>
History and International Affairs <BR>
Co-Director, Undergraduate Program in International Affairs <BR>
1957 E Street 503H <BR>
The George Washington University <BR>
Washington DC, 20052 <BR>
(202) 994-5253 <BR>
<BR>
----- Original Message ----- <BR>
From: Balazs Szalontai <aoverl@yahoo.co.uk> <BR>
Date: Thursday, March 23, 2006 1:22 am <BR>
Subject: Re: [KS] Population in North Korea 1945 <BR>
To: Korean Studies Discussion List <Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws> <BR>
<BR>
> Dear Ruediger, <BR>
> <BR>
> the most detailed work on the subject is probably the book of <BR>
> Nicholas Eberstadt and Judith Banister, "The Population of North <BR>
> Korea" (1992). As far as I remember, the last Japanese census was <BR>
> held in 1944 or so. <BR>
> <BR>
> Best, <BR>
> Balazs <BR>
> <BR>
> <BR>
> <BR>
> I am looking for data on the population of North Korea around <BR>
> liberation, i.e. in 1945, <BR>
> before the migration towards the South started. My estimate would <BR>
> be around 7-8 millions. <BR>
> Any hint is highly appreciated. <BR>
> <BR>
> Best, <BR>
> <BR>
> Ruediger Frank <BR>
> <BR>
> <BR>
<BR>
<BR>
</BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=3 PTSIZE=12 FAMILY="SERIF" FACE="Times New Roman" LANG="0">_________________<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=2 PTSIZE=10 FAMILY="SANSSERIF" FACE="Arial" LANG="0">Subj: <B>[KS] Population in North Korea 1945 </B> <BR>
Date: 22/03/2006 19:49:20 GMT Standard Time <BR>
From: <A HREF="mailto:rfrank@koreanstudies.de">rfrank@koreanstudies.de</A> <BR>
Reply-to: <A HREF="mailto:Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws">Koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws</A> <BR>
To: <A HREF="mailto:koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws">koreanstudies@koreaweb.ws</A> <BR>
<I>Sent from the Internet (Details)</I> <BR>
<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
Dear list members,<BR>
<BR>
I am looking for data on the population of North Korea around liberation, i.e. in 1945, <BR>
before the migration towards the South started. My estimate would be around 7-8 millions. <BR>
Any hint is highly appreciated.<BR>
<BR>
Best,<BR>
<BR>
Ruediger Frank<BR>
<BR>
<BR>
</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000" BACK="#ffffff" style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" SIZE=3 PTSIZE=12 FAMILY="SERIF" FACE="Times New Roman" LANG="0"><BR>
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