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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>BAKS readers may be interested in the following
from 'the Tablet' the English UK RC Weekly Journal 14th October</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN
style="COLOR: #dd0000; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Church
opposes <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>
sanctions</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 23.5pt; COLOR: #dd0000; FONT-FAMILY: Georgia; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Ellen
Teague and Tim Lavin 14 October 2006 Tablet<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Despite shock and
concern at <st1:country-region w:st="on">North Korea</st1:country-region>'s
testing of a nuclear bomb on Monday, <st1:country-region w:st="on">South
Korea</st1:country-region>'s Catholic bishops immediately stepped up their
programme of aid to <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:country-region></st1:place> after news of the test. On Tuesday, the
director of the Korean branch of the Catholic relief agency Caritas travelled to
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region> to evaluate the impact of the crisis on
Church projects. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Fr Paul Han Jung-kwan,
executive secretary of the Committee for the Reconciliation of Korean People of
the Bishops' Conference, spoke of the need to establish a long-term plan to help
the North Koreans. He said he now expected them to become more isolated and to
suffer from a lack of food and basic services. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Worn down by the
disastrous agricultural policies of the regime of Kim Jong-il, many of
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s 23 million people already suffer from
chronic hunger. Even <st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region>,
<st1:country-region w:st="on">North Korea</st1:country-region>'s largest
provider of food aid and traditionally a close ally, is clearly angry with
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pyongyang</st1:place></st1:City> and
may countenance economic sanctions that it has not supported in the past.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Asked about North
Korea's nuclear test this week, Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Tarcisio
Bertone said: "It is clear that the Holy See is in favour, not of weapons, but
of disarmament and peace," adding that the "Holy See will continue to work for
what advances peace".<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">His words were echoed
by a statement made by the Pontifical Council on Justice and Peace which
expressed its "full support" to a proposal to set up a working group within the
United Nations that would prepare a treaty to limit conventional weapons
trade.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><SPAN style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">South
Korea</SPAN></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">'s President had
threatened to block economic aid if <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">North Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region> went ahead with nuclear
testing. The North's announcement of an experiment threatened to throw the
"sunshine" policy of <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">South
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s President Roh Moo-hyun into crisis. The
President had sought to involve <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Pyongyang</st1:place></st1:City> in dialogue by offering economic and
food aid. In <st1:City w:st="on">Seoul</st1:City>, people took to the streets to
call for the deposition of President Kim Jong-il of <st1:country-region
w:st="on">North Korea</st1:country-region>, while opposition parties asked: "why
must we keep helping <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>". <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Last week, before the
test, a <st1:place w:st="on">Vatican</st1:place> representative at the United
Nations warned that the world faced a crisis on nuclear disarmament, saying that
the international community seemed to be "sleepwalking" towards a world
increasingly dominated by the threat of nuclear terrorism.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Archbishop Celestino
Migliore, head of the Holy See's delegation to the UN, said that UN member
nations were facing stark choices on nuclear matters. He said: "One path can
take us to a world in which the proliferation of nuclear weapons is restricted
and reversed through trust, dialogue and negotiated agreement. The other path
leads to a world in which rapidly growing numbers of states feel obliged to arm
themselves with nuclear weapons and the threat of nuclear terrorism
grows."<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"The international
community seems almost to be sleepwalking down the latter path," he said, "not
by conscious choice but rather through miscalculation, sterile debate and the
paralysis of multilateral mechanisms for confidence-building and conflict
resolution."</SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN> </P><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: #dd0000; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">The
Korean mouse that roared</SPAN><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Michael
Byers 14 October 2006<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">North
Korea's announcement this week that it has carried out a nuclear test has
shocked the world, arousing universal condemnation. It has also exposed the
frailty of international diplomacy in the face of intransigence. Could this be
the start of a new arms race?</SPAN></B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial"><o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">In
Leonard Wibberley's novel The Mouse that Roared (1955), a tiny impoverished
country declares war on the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> in the hope of being
rapidly defeated, occupied and reconstructed. The plan goes awry when the
flyweight belligerent inadvertently acquires the world's most powerful weapon,
and thus the ability to defend itself. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Wibberley's
tale was made into a Peter Sellers movie that Kim Jong-Il, as a film buff, has
undoubtedly seen. After the 2003 Iraq War, the North Korean dictator speculated
that George W. Bush would not have attacked had Saddam Hussein possessed nuclear
weapons. This past Monday, Mr Kim apparently ordered the detonation of a small
nuclear bomb, sending political shock waves around the world (although some,
including <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">France</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s Defence Minister, say it may
have been a fake, or failed). <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">If
it did indeed happen, as most nations believe, the test was a blow to the 1968
Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), under which more than 180 states
forswore nuclear weapons. In return, the so-called "declared nuclear weapon
states" - <st1:country-region w:st="on">Britain</st1:country-region>,
<st1:country-region w:st="on">China</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">France</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Russia</st1:country-region> and the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> -
promised to share nuclear technology for peaceful energy production and work
towards "general disarmament". <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">The
NPT has been remarkably successful. Over the course of nearly four decades, only
three countries have developed nuclear arms; and each of the three -
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Israel</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">India</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:place></st1:country-region> -
exercised its sovereign right to stay out of the treaty. Around 30 other
countries have chosen not to develop nuclear weapons despite having the
technological capacity to do so. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">North
Korea</SPAN></st1:place></st1:country-region><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">
is the ugly exception. In January 2003, it withdrew from the NPT. It renounced a
1994 "framework agreement" with the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region> under which, in return
for economic aid, it had shut down its single reactor and stopped reprocessing
spent uranium fuel rods into plutonium for nuclear weapons. And it expelled
weapons inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency which had been
monitoring its compliance. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Following
this week's test, it is possible that other countries in the region will seek to
acquire nuclear weapons. <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Japan</st1:country-region>, which on Tuesday announced sanctions
against <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>, is the most likely to do so, despite its
vehement denials of any such intent. In any event, <st1:City
w:st="on">Tokyo</st1:City> will almost certainly accelerate work on a missile
defence system that can only make matters worse by prompting <st1:City
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pyongyang</st1:place></st1:City> to build more
bombs and missiles so as to maintain an ability to overwhelm the Japanese
system, thus ensuring a continuing deterrent. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">The
test also raises the stakes with regard to <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region>, which has
been defying the will of the UN Security Council by refusing to shut down a
uranium enrichment programme. <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>, which has the second-largest oil and gas
reserves in the <st1:place w:st="on">Middle East</st1:place>, claims that the
programme is strictly for peaceful energy production. If <st1:country-region
w:st="on">North Korea</st1:country-region> benefits rather than suffers as a
result of acquiring nuclear weapons, <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Iran</st1:place></st1:country-region> will be encouraged to continue
its efforts. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Finally,
the test poses a serious challenge to the United Nations. Three months ago, the
Security Council ordered <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">North Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region> to stop producing
ballistic missiles. Earlier this month, it expressed "deep concern" at the
prospect of a North Korean nuclear test, which it said "would jeopardise peace,
stability and security in the region and beyond". <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">As
Archbishop Celestino Migliore, head of the Holy See's delegation to the UN, has
pointed out, UN member states are facing stark choices on nuclear matters, with
the international community sleepwalking to nuclear proliferation through
"miscalculation, sterile debate and the paralysis of multilateral mechanisms for
confidence-building and conflict resolution". <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">At
the same time, the situation does provide an opportunity for the UN by offering
new space for Chinese leadership. <st1:country-region
w:st="on">China</st1:country-region>, which is <st1:country-region
w:st="on">North Korea</st1:country-region>'s primary source of food and oil, has
used its status as a permanent member of the Security Council to protect
<st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pyongyang</st1:place></st1:City> in the
past. But earlier this week, it condemned the nuclear test as a "flagrant and
brazen" violation of international opinion. Although <st1:City
w:st="on">Beijing</st1:City> is justifiably concerned about creating a situation
where more of <st1:country-region w:st="on">North Korea</st1:country-region>'s
22 million oppressed and impoverished people might flee into <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">China</st1:place></st1:country-region>, it also,
almost desperately, wants to expand its role in international affairs beyond the
economic domain. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Chinese
leadership would be especially helpful now that a South Korean, Ban Ki-moon, has
been selected as the new UN secretary-general. Mr Ban will have difficulty being
seen as objective and even-handed with regard to matters so close to home.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">At
the moment, there is no concern about <st1:country-region w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:country-region> using its new weapons, despite aggressive comments
from the country's foreign ministry that, should the <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United States</st1:place></st1:country-region>
maintain its hostile policy, it would conduct more nuclear tests. Apart from the
certainty of a devastating retaliatory strike, it is a big step from having a
nuclear bomb to having one that is small enough to mount on a missile. Instead,
the worry is that <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region> might sell nuclear materials or
technology to other countries or even terrorist groups.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">For
this reason, the Security Council will probably authorise the
<st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> and other
countries to board and search vessels leaving <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region> for
nuclear weapons or missile components. There is already a precedent for this: in
1966, the Council authorised the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United
Kingdom</st1:country-region> to interdict oil shipments destined for white-ruled
<st1:place w:st="on">Southern Rhodesia</st1:place>. Such a move would deprive
the North Korean Government, which has previously sold missiles to
<st1:country-region w:st="on">Iran</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Yemen</st1:country-region>, <st1:country-region
w:st="on">Pakistan</st1:country-region> and <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Syria</st1:place></st1:country-region>, of a key
source of hard currency. Then there is the possibility of sanctions, ideally
targeted at the governing elite rather than ordinary North Koreans, many of whom
already suffer from chronic hunger. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">It
is also necessary that the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United
States</st1:country-region> talk directly with <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>.
When he was president, Bill Clinton made real progress by allowing his diplomats
to engage in bilateral negotiations. This led to the 1994 framework agreement
and, in 2000, a summit meeting between Kim Jong-Il and South Korea's
then-president, Kim Dae-jung. Shortly before <st1:City
w:st="on">Clinton</st1:City> left office, American diplomats were so close to
achieving an agreement on ballistic missiles that he seriously considered a trip
to <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Pyongyang</st1:place></st1:City>.
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">George
W. Bush arrived in the White House determined to reject everything his
predecessor had done. When, in early 2001, Colin Powell said that he favoured
continuing <st1:City w:st="on">Clinton</st1:City>'s approach on
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>, the Secretary of State was publicly
rebuked by the President. Mr Bush, overlooking a fundamental principle of
diplomacy - that opponents must be treated as equals - insisted that
<st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s regional neighbours be involved in any
negotiations. He also labelled <st1:country-region w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:country-region> part of an "axis of evil", called the diminutive Mr
Kim "disgusting" and "a pygmy", and declared that the <st1:country-region
w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region> would never tolerate a
nuclear-armed <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region>. At the same time, Mr Bush was flouting
the <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">United
States</st1:place></st1:country-region>' own NPT obligation - to work towards
general disarmament - by supporting the development of a new generation of
nuclear weapons. <o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">A
senior American naval officer once told me that the Pentagon's "nightmare
scenario" involved North Korea rushing its forces into Seoul - which is only 30
miles from the demilitarised zone - and then announcing that the soldiers had
taken a nuclear bomb along. Such a bomb, if detonated in the heart of that large
city, could kill millions of South Koreans as well as tens of thousands of
American soldiers and expatriates. Undetonated, it would constitute a powerful
bargaining chip.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">This
week's test and the impossibility of strikes on <st1:country-region
w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region> now
have forced President Bush to retreat to a new position. Any transfer by
<st1:country-region w:st="on">North Korea</st1:country-region> of nuclear
weapons or material to another state or group will be considered "a grave threat
to the <st1:country-region w:st="on">United States</st1:country-region>" for
which <st1:country-region w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">North
Korea</st1:place></st1:country-region> will be held "fully accountable".
<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">But
Monday's test, by further exposing President Bush's flawed foreign policies,
could soon join the debacle in Iraq as a Republican liability in the mid-term
congressional elections on 7 November. If this happens, Mr Bush may feel the
need to "wag the dog" elsewhere: there are already indications that the
American-led flotilla in the <st1:place w:st="on">Arabian Sea</st1:place> is
being strengthened to support a possible air campaign against Iranian nuclear
facilities.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">This
is how many armed conflicts begin, with a cascade of easily avoidable mistakes
exacerbated by unforeseen, extraneous circumstances. Handled badly, even a mouse
can trigger a war.<o:p></o:p></SPAN></P>
<P class=MsoNormal
style="MARGIN: 0cm 0cm 0pt; mso-margin-top-alt: auto; mso-margin-bottom-alt: auto"><B><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: 'Trebuchet MS'; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial">Michael
Byers holds the <st1:country-region w:st="on">Canada</st1:country-region>
Research Chair in Global Politics and International Law at the <st1:PlaceType
w:st="on">University</st1:PlaceType> of <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">British
Columbia</st1:PlaceName> in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place
w:st="on">Vancouver</st1:place></st1:City>. He is the author of <I>War Law:
Understanding International Law and Armed Conflict</I> (Atlantic Books,
2005).</SPAN></B></P></SPAN></DIV></FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>