[KS] Re: Still Invaded Economically and Culturally

[Dr. John Caruso Jr.]

The fall of Communism turned events upside down in Europe.  Enemies became
allies and one day the former USSR or at least Russia might join NATO to
protect themselves against errant Republics or the Ukraine.

The Germans had the largest forces in NATO/Warsaw Pact but they were not
moved to the border with Poland, or near Koblenz or poised to reunite
Ostmark with a 4th Reich.  The DDR did collapse as the Soviets couldn't pay
the overhead.  USAREUR forces are sort of fading away with troop reductions
and base closings at 60-80%.  The French and Germans finally buried the
hatchet after more warfare and invasions than victim Korea suffered at the
hands of aggressor Japan or pressures from big brother China.

Now what does this have to do with Korea? A little or a lot?

Can the NK regime continue with or without aid or trade from the PRC? Dear
Leader wants to build a silicon valley in NK.  Why not,  they already have a
MT Hyundai? How about calling it Samsung Valley?

If the NK forces behave like the PLA or the 30 years of coup tactics in SK,
then a lot of retired NK generals will be owning fast food franchises or
working for a Chaebol.  Both military establishments consume an enormous
amount of the fraudulent NK GDP and a good part of the SK economy plus the
millions of males who do their 2-3 year of services. NK and SK might face an
unemployment problem as does a united Germany.

Japan is already rearming and spends billions on its National Defense Forces
(remember the US Dept of Defense used to be the Dept of War) so protective
labels often conceal aggressive policies.

If a SK president asks USFK to leave I suspect the USA will go. Then Korea -
united or divided - will have to be powerful enough to deal with formidable
neighbors. The Koreans don't have the topography to become another
Switzerland even though some Seoulites are beginning to eat cheese.

How will the next US President who might serve for 8 years regard the
situation between the two Koreas?  GWB Jr. is going to rely on Cheney who is
one tough former Secretary of Defense. Who will Al Gore select to replace
Albright?   Former US Senator Mitchell - good track record with Northern
Ireland but there are some heavyweights (K-studies group members) that could
do a more effective job of helping to heal the wounds if the Koreans want to
become one country again and need or will accept help.   Give peace a
chance?

John

----- Original Message -----
From: "Robert Armstrong" <chonan99 at hotmail.com>
To: <korean-studies at mailbase.ac.uk>
Sent: Monday, July 31, 2000 6:34 AM
Subject: Re: Still Invaded Economically and Culturally


> My question is; when Korea does unify, where do all the troops go?  Right
> now there is somewhere around a million men facing each other in the DMZ
> area and the rear areas included would obviously bring that force number
up.
>   The large submarine navy of the North's along with their gun boats and
> missile boats, South Korea and her small navy of submarines and surface
> vessels, the large airforces of both countries, not to mention the
rocketry
> of North Korea's.  Will China be happy with a shift of the troops to the
> Chinese border?  Will the Russians be happy when their weakly guarded
border
> with the North Koreans is suddenly facing not the small backward rear
units
> but a large force of men.  Don't forget Putian had made the comment that
> unless Russia is careful, the maritime provinces will become Korean,
Chinese
> or Japanese, (I am pretty sure he meant that ethnically but who knows).
> Will Japan be relieved to have the combined navies of the North and South
> now as a potential to their own valued sea lanes, let alone a nice bit of
> open land to test their missiles, and with South Korean technology?  Will
> the generals in the North and the South be willing to be relieved of their
> power when a restructuring of the military would come about?  I am tend to
> doubt that.  Any suggestions what they will do with the military?
>
> Robert
>
>




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