[KS] Korea Update January 2015 (Council on Foreign Relations, New York City)

Tue Jan 6 23:32:24 EST 2015

From: CFR Program on U.S.-Korea Policy [korea-program at e.cfr.org]
Sent: Tuesday, January 06, 2015 1:44 PM
Subject: Korea Update January 2015

If you are unable to see the message below, click here to view<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/servlet/MailView?ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>.
[Council on Foreign Relations]<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=38&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>      Korea Update January 2015

NORTH KOREA

Cyberattack on Sony Pictures: The U.S. Response<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=12&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

Policymakers are debating how to respond to the alleged North Korean cyberattack on Sony Pictures, attacks that may have been designed to punish the company for making The Interview, a movie satirizing North Korea and its Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. CFR President Richard N. Haass argues that “only one approach is commensurate with the challenge: ending North Korea’s existence as an independent entity and reunifying the Korean Peninsula.”  Read the op-ed in The Wall Street Journal »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=12&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

North Korea’s “Toughest Counteraction” to Obama’s “Proportional” Response<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=13&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

In response to the cyberattacks on Sony Pictures, which resulted in countless embarrassing and damaging leaked emails and the delayed release of The Interview, President Barack Obama emphasized<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=1&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0> the need for a “proportional” U.S. response and referred to the attack as “cybervandalism<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=7&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>,” while the North Korean rhetorical response was anything but proportional. Scott A. Snyder, CFR senior fellow for Korea Studies and director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy, revisits the December 21 statement<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=11&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0> from North Korea’s National Defense Commission (NDC) to understand how Pyongyang is likely to view the latest turn of events. Read the post on Asia Unbound »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=19&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

Tracing the Cyberattack on Sony Pictures<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=42&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

U.S. officials have accused North Korea of mounting the attack to counter the release of The Interview, a charge that North Koreans deny. On December 22, Snyder joined Adam Segal, CFR senior fellow for China Studies and director of the digital and cyberspace policy program, and Robert McMahon, editor of CFR.org, for a media conference call to discuss the fallout from the hack. Read the transcript on CFR.org »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=24&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

With North Korea, Attribution May Be the Easy Part<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=40&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

After weeks of speculation about who was responsible for the hacking of Sony Pictures, U.S officials are telling the press that North Korea was “centrally involved.” If it was North Korea, then attribution may be the easy part. Segal argues that coming up with a proportionate, effective policy response will be much harder. In a recent blog post<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=10&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>, Segal discusses the intricacies of government response to a cyberattack. Read the post on Net Politics »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=9&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

Sorry, But North Korea Is Not a State Sponsor of Terrorism<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=28&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

Given the relatively meager U.S. leverage over North Korea, there are precious few practical response options that would deter future malicious actions. According to senior administration officials, one option under consideration is placing North Korea back on the “state sponsors of terrorism” list, from which it was removed in 2008. However, as explained by Micah Zenko, CFR Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action, there is a small problem with such a designation: North Korea simply is not a state sponsor of terrorism. Read the op-ed on ForeignPolicy.com »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=28&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

The Interview and Its Challenge to North Korea’s Leadership<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=47&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

Kim Jong-un has made more visible moves than Kim Jong-il to consolidate power in the three years since his father’s death, but he arguably faces a more serious challenge to North Korea’s honor and survival than his father did. From Team America to The Interview, North Korea’s leadership has become the butt of a joke that serves to obscure North Korea’s steadily growing threat, writes Snyder. Read the post on Asia Unbound »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=23&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

NORTHEAST ASIA RELATIONS

“The U.S.-ROK Alliance Needs a Hardline Approach to North Korea,” Says Haass<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=51&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

During a visit to Seoul to speak at the World Policy Conference<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=6&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0> in December, Haass sat down to an interview for the Donga Ilbo with former National Assemblyman Park Jin. Their conversation covered a range of security issues confronting Northeast Asia, including the U.S. role in mending Korean-Japanese relations, prospects for China’s growing economic role in the world and in the region, and prospects for the reunification of the Korean Peninsula.  Read the interview (in Korean) on the Choongang Ilbo» »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=51&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

New Challenges for the U.S.-ROK Alliance<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=22&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

The U.S.-South Korea alliance has grown deeper since 2009, from the joint vision statement outlined by Obama and then South Korean President Lee Myung-bak to South Korea’s current President Park Geun-hye’s reaffirmation in Washington last year. As Snyder argues in his chapter<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=26&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0> for the National Bureau of Asian Research’s most recent volume, Strategic Asia 2014–2015: U.S. Alliances and Partnerships at the Center of Global Power<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=39&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>, further implementation of this broadened vision has created new internal and external challenges. Read the post on Asia Unbound »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=21&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

Reading Pyongyang’s Intentions With Japan<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=15&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

In the fall of 2014, Pyongyang seemed focused on a new era of humanitarian diplomacy. But there is little urgency in its discussions with Tokyo over the return of Japanese citizens abducted by the North Korean government since the 1970s. Sheila Smith, CFR senior fellow for Japan Studies, explains the domestic pressures faced by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his cabinet driving current talks with Pyongyang over the abductees. Read the post at 38 North »<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=15&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

CFR'S KOREA PROGRAM IN THE NEWS

Donga Ilbo (Korea), “North Korea Fell Into a Trap: The Enormous Publicity Effect of Cyberterror<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=14&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 26, 2014)

Voice of America, “Analysis: For N. Koreans, Parody Has Grave Tone<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=8&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 25, 2014)

Voice of America, “Analysts: U.S. in Uncharted Terrain Over Alleged N. Korea Sony Hack<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=30&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 24, 2014)

Yonhap News (Korea), “U.S. Experts Debate Return North Korea as a State Sponsor of Terror<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=4&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 23, 2014)

Politico, “Sony Hack: What’s Next? – ICYMI: Staples Confirms 1.2 million card breach<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=2&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 22, 2014)

Military.com, “Cyber Retaliation Suspected after North Korea’s Internet Crashes<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=17&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 22, 2014)

Washington Post, “North Korea, ‘The Interview’ Latest Episode in Perceived U.S. Conspiracies<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=25&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 19, 2014)

Atlantic, “Why the U.S. Can’t Punish North Korea<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=27&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 19, 2014)

International Business Times, “North Korea Counterstrike: U.S. Could Deploy Range of Cyberweapons Against Kim Jong-un, Sony Hackers<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=35&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 19, 2014)

Lawfare, “Today’s Headlines and Commentary<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=32&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 18, 2014)

Donga Ilbo (Korea) “U.S., Chinese, Japanese, Russian Experts on the Korean Peninsula<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=36&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 13, 2014)

Variety, “North Korea Experts: Link to Sony Attack Difficult to Prove, Punish<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=44&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 9, 2014)

Bustle, “Was North Korea Behind the Sony Hacking? Experts Weigh In<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=37&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>” (December 9, 2014)

The Program on U.S.-Korea Policy

The program on U.S.-Korea policy was established at the Council on Foreign Relations in September 2011. It aims to strengthen the U.S.-Korea relationship by providing relevant policy recommendations and promoting dialogue on sensitive bilateral, regional, and global issues facing the two countries. The program acknowledges the generous support it has received from the Smith Richardson Foundation, Korea Foundation, and South Korean private sponsors, including Hyundai Motors, Korea International Trade Association, and the Federation of Korean Industries. It also acknowledges with thanks additional support received from individual donor Sandor Hau.

Scott A. Snyder<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=31&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>, Director
Follow @snydersas on Twitter<http://links.cfr.mkt5175.com/ctt?kn=43&ms=NDc3NTc4MDMS1&r=NTY0NTU0NTcxMDMS1&b=0&j=NjAwODM5OTY4S0&mt=1&rt=0>

Darcie Draudt, Research Associate

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