[KS] Re: Still Invaded Economically and Culturally

[Dr. John Caruso Jr.]

Michael Robinson raises some good points.  On the other hand, it doesn't pay
to
"await developments", as General Gamelin said in April 1940.  He found out
just what those terrible developments were a few days later.

There has to be some forward thinking, contingency planning, and
pre-positioning of things, in order not to be surprised.  One hopes that
there is a team in the State Department, working closely with, or even part
of, a team in the Pentagon, doing the "what if" drills.  They should also be
developing guidelines for U. S. policy as events develop, and even if the U.
S. cannot control those events, it may be able to exercise some influence
over them.  After all, half of the equation - the ROK - is a U. S. friend
and ally.  Another key regional player, Japan, is also a U. S. friend and
ally.  Russia is important, but not powerful enough to meddle.  China has a
history
of meddling, so it must be given appropriate consideration.  NK will, of
course, lean on China for the most part, and try to reduce the U. S.
influence in the ROK, and therefore in a unified Korea.

If there is to be a unified Korea, almost everyone outside Pyongyang knows
that it will be the North that is subsumed into the ROK, and not vice versa.
Neither will there be a partnership, as with the Ausgleich of 1867 between
Austria and Hungary, resulting in Austria-Hungary.  We're not going to see
the United States of North and South Korea, or the People's Democratic
Commonwealth of the Republic of Korea.  What we'll see will be the
integration of the North into the South, with due respect paid to the
cultural heritage and political history of the North since 1945.  But it
will be the North that will adapt, not the South.

And we need people to think about this, how it could happen, which
developments are positive for peace and which are not, which promote the
development of the region and which do not, and concomitantly, which give
the best chance for increased and continued international cooperation,
including the U. S., among states having interests in the region.

John

----- Original Message -----
From: "michael Robinson" <mrobinso at indiana.edu>
To: <korean-studies at mailbase.ac.uk>
Sent: Monday, July 31, 2000 1:06 PM
Subject: Re: Still Invaded Economically and Culturally


> Dear List:
>
> this discussion of a "unified" North and South armed forces seems a bit
> premature.  Certainly one to think about if there ever is a collapse of
the
> North.  But the assumption of a "unified" anything at this moment awaits a
> tourturous number of years of negotiations.  It took 55 years to re-open
the
> train line after all.
>
> MRobinson
> -----------------------------------------------------





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