[KS] Re: literature types on NK perspectives

[Balazs Szalontai]

I doubt if the U.S. can really influence domestic developments in North 
Korea. Paradoxically, a belligerence American stance can produce a 
negative effect on North Korean behavior, but a flexible US policy 
will not necessarily lead to a North Korean reform policy comparable 
to, say, the Vietnamese doi moi. It is a habit of the KWP leadership 
to appease foreign aid donors by superficial reforms (of such actions, 
one may mention the economic measures taken in 1953, 1955, 1956, 
1965, and so on), but they lay a very great stress on maintaining a 
firm control over the North Korean population. Significantly, both 
the post-1978 Chinese economic reforms and the Vietnamese doi moi 
were accompanied by a certain political liberalization (not democratization!) 
and a relaxation of social and cultural controls. Hardly any such "liberal" 
measure has been made in the DPRK in the last decade, and if one compares 
the style of "Nodong Sinmun" with that of the Vietnamese "Nhan Van," 
the differences are all too visible. The Chinese and Vietnamese party 
leaders introduced the reforms of their own will, not because of external 
pressure; North Korea must do the same. What the U.S. may do is to 
offer P'yongyang some of the guarantees the NK ask for. Significantly, 
the reforms introduced by Tito, Khrushchev, Deng, and Nguyen van Linh 
were facilitated by an improvement of relations with the West. On the 
other hand, the fact that Albania managed to improve her relations with 
Greece, Turkey, some West European countries, and temporarily even 
with Yugoslavia in the 1970s and 1980s (for instance, Belgrade became 
one of Tirana's major trading partners) did not lead to any meaningful 
reforms in Albania until the regime collapsed. One may say that developments 
in these countries are more independent from Great Power "advice," 
assistance, pressure, and threats than the leaders of these Great Powers 
like to believe. No amount of US money could produce an economic 
modernization comparable to the Taiwanese, Singaporean, and South 
Korean case in, say, South Vietnam and Laos, though Laos was probably 
given more American aid per capita than any other country on earth at 
that time.    

Balazs Szalontai 
   



Very interesting and illuminating observations, especially re. the
installation of family members in office and the sort of instability that
may lead to--  with historical example.  So instead of cutting off food and
trade, perhaps US policy makers should explore how to get more Kims into
the DPRK government, if the intended outcome is actually destabilization?
(Are there more Kims available?)

Or framed slightly differently, propose the <more family into office>
strategy, and use it as a check on what sorts of criteria, what areas of
information, the policy types are open to considering.  Sort of a litmus
test.  What is American foreign policy based on?

Alas, another question suggests itself.  Is American foreign policy
vis-a-vis North Korea really just a long coded message to the PRC?

David McCann again