[KS] Korea Update: Kim Jong-il’s Death – U.S.-Korea Policy - More

[Frank Joseph Shulman]

From: CFR Program on U.S.-Korea Policy [Korea-program at cfr.org]
Sent: Thursday, December 22, 2011 11:50 AM
To: Frank Joseph Shulman
Subject: Korea Update: Kim Jong-il’s Death – U.S.-Korea Policy - More

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[http://i.cfr.org/i/nl/header4.gif]<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/d7fb6811e102023e50d4a4a356d444fe?pa=6867766082> Korea Update<http://mm.cfr.org/webview/951e12?fe=1&pact=6867766082?cid=nlc-korea-korea_update-link3-20111222>
December 2011
I’m pleased to share with you the first edition of the “Korea Update,” from the new program on U.S.-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). As you may know, this newsletter was previously issued by the Center for U.S.-Korea Policy at the Asia Foundation.

Scott A. Snyder,
Senior Fellow for Korea Studies and Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy




Kim Jong-il’s Death: Causing Uncertainty and Anxiety<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/48326acba31b723797eaa9797cafe4dd?pa=6867766082>


Korea specialist Scott A. Snyder analyzes the repercussions of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's death, arguing that it will cause North Korea's neighbors to warily watch both Pyongyang and each other.

Kim Jong-il's death comes only days before 2012, the hundred-year anniversary of the birth of North Korea's founder and Kim's father, Kim Il-sung. North Korea's long-planned celebration of this anniversary will now be preempted by collective shows of mourning (but perhaps few real tears for Kim Jong-il), uncertainty despite clearly laid plans for succession, and heightened strategic anxiety among North Korea's neighbors. Read More<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/3263d16ad9e2fdcce9df9c03f88253ea?pa=6867766082>





North Korea After Kim Jong-il

Deciphering the Transition<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/67d24f2540e2c629adb3bef6a5cecf18?pa=6867766082>

Paul B. Stares argues that the death of Kim Jong-il may inspire North Korean provocations, but it may also present an opportunity for the country to change. Watch the Video »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/1ebb63eb1309095282165f4b748bbaf9?pa=6867766082>


Stares: "There Are Some Opportunities that the Death Presents"<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/143330097d87849afe26793d178cc308?pa=6867766082>

Snyder and Stares discuss Kim's death and its impact on the country's future, regional stability, and U.S. policy. Read the Transcript »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/8e4557067cf7da12fd7af147b6d9f99f?pa=6867766082>


An Uncertain Succession<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/3c618d29862894475f939b3a698cc05c?pa=6867766082>

Will Kim Jong-il's twenty-seven-year-old son assume power in a smooth transition or is a destabilizing succession struggle ahead? Snyder says the next few weeks will provide crucial signals. Read the Interview »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/2b73e14d2d5d660ea3da9806583c80e1?pa=6867766082>


Recent Publications

Busan High-Level Forum: From Dead Aid to Better Development?<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/b2ff2bf1fbee0bcbe46c3a19d9ef0919?pa=6867766082>

Establishing a new framework for development cooperation, the Busan High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness introduced a new future for poverty reduction, argues development specialist Sohn Hyuk-sang. Read More »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/37180c3f50cddc73a8773b1c6b2e5cde?pa=6867766082>


Beyond a “Virtual U.S.-ROK-Japan” Alliance<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/a27c1e2bf852131b4299201adb1f32c2?pa=6867766082>

Greater integration between U.S.-Japan and U.S.-Korea alliances is worth considering, says Snyder, in his chapter in "The U.S.-Japan Security Alliance." Read More »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/bf42de153191416403e635cd305ed9db?pa=6867766082>


Stopping North Korea’s Nuclear Program<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/cc3e144000102c044a1293f5e215626f?pa=6867766082>

To stop North Korea's nuclear program, Snyder argues that countries must subordinate some of their national interests to commonly identified goals. Read More »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/bceda0c48fded57d925c78358e3ff684?pa=6867766082>


East Asia Summit and a Northeast Asia Security Regime<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/6eeee2b0ac0d45e5718155115da0be03?pa=6867766082>

The evolution of institutional arrangements in Northeast Asia is an irreversible trend, says Korea University professor Lee Shin-wha, as she analyzes East Asia multilateral initiatives and the requirements for their future success. Read More »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/6349933253d12db822c9f470fadc3028?pa=6867766082>


>From the Asia Unbound Blog

On "Asia Unbound," six CFR experts analyze cutting-edge issues in Asia. Snyder assesses Korean politics and U.S.-ROK relations. Subscribe to Email Updates, RSS<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/7b3f28e1293ac617ee9f5b9a372713cd?pa=6867766082>.


Kim Jong-il in Death as in Life: Sowing Divisions in South Korea<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/18f80fcf7ee0e264136fe66bb98cce7e?pa=6867766082>

>From criticism of intelligence agencies to conflict over condolences to North Korea, Kim Jong-il inspires discord in South Korea even from his deathbed, says Snyder. Read More »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/1a1462c63c85590d6021812b0f0dd7cb?pa=6867766082>


Concern and Caution: Japan Responds to Kim Jong-il’s Death<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/046173c2423659a59d45ef09f01da7bd?pa=6867766082>

As Kim Jong-il's death raises many of the unresolved challenges that Japan faces with North Korea, the Japanese government is responding with concern and caution, says Sheila A. Smith. Read More »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/020174fac474b2198729886f64436df2?pa=6867766082>


Will Secretary Clinton Visit Pyongyang?<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/479e00d450948a733b611ccbf19cde67?pa=6867766082>

"Don't hold your breath," says Snyder, who discusses the conditions necessary for a visit by the U.S. secretary of state to North Korea. Read More »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/c5e97c128a6d36d3c95c25b58c0c1a52?pa=6867766082>


Dialogue and “Strategic Patience” with North Korea<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/fd2da395f6fb6ab758726b6e38a7d39f?pa=6867766082>

The Six Party Talks can have no utility—and should not proceed—unless North Korea affirms that denuclearization is on the agenda, says Snyder. Despite the disappointing outcome of the U.S.-DPRK meetings in Geneva, the Obama administration was right to insist that North Korea restore the status quo ante of December 2008. Read More »<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/ebabce7c6d154067436a019d3a89cc9e?pa=6867766082>


Recent Events

December 20, The Korean Peninsula after Kim Jong-il: Uncertainties, Challenges and Opportunities<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/587b3d62f05421941eca0bab7f249b45?pa=6867766082>. KEI, CSIS, CFR, Washington, DC. Former Ambassador Jack Pritchard, CSIS Korea Chair Victor Cha, and Snyder discuss the current situation on and future of the Korean peninsula after Kim Jong-il's death.

December 13, How to Make Subversive Engagement with North Korea Work. CFR, Washington, DC. Snyder presided over a roundtable discussion with Professor Andrei Lankov of Kookmin University.

December 8-9, U.S.-Japan-ROK Dialogue on Nuclear Issues: Toward a Common Trilateral Approach<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/6b35fd0b77a36b296eb32530825db10e?pa=6867766082>. Center for Strategic & International Studies, Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Japan Institute of International Affairs, Washington, DC. Snyder presented a U.S. perspective on how leadership transitions in the United States and South Korea may affect the foreign policy of these respective countries.

November 30, Is Global Korea Really Global?<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/411d45996b68892070113f3c03cf6e2a?pa=6867766082> East Asia Institute and the Asia Foundation, Seoul. Snyder moderated a workshop session assessing South Korea's contributions to international security.

November 29, Global Power Shift and Asia. Seoul Forum for International Affairs, Seoul. Snyder served as a discussant for a panel addressing "the political and security dimension."

November 28, Major Countries' Leadership Changes in Northeast Asia and North Korean Nuclear Weapons. Institute for National Security Strategy, Seoul. Snyder discussed the upcoming American presidential election and corresponding strategy for North Korean issues.



CFR's Korea Program in the News

Bloomberg Businessweek: "North Korean Leader's Death May Trigger Nuclear Crisis<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/0c3a61bb61495fc53b64f656891dd85f?pa=6867766082>" (December 21, 2011)

National Journal: "Who Has North Korea's Nuclear 'Football'? Few Have an Answer<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/2b6137804776bb274773f90d56298ec4?pa=6867766082>" (December 20, 2011)

Los Angeles Times: "North Korean Successor Inherits Troubled Land<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/33a8a4b11760accb00b64b37becc56ba?pa=6867766082>" (December 20, 2011)

CNN Security Clearance: "North Korea's Security Clearance<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/63a8fd726f94cfc1e86a284cc8bb5788?pa=6867766082>" (December 20, 2011)



The Program on U.S.-Korea Policy

The program on U.S.-Korea policy was established at the Council on Foreign Relations in September 2011, and is led by Scott A. Snyder<http://mm.cfr.org/redirects/ab97aa3e7dde6ebcd11df91be5f86b46?pa=6867766082>, senior fellow for Korea studies. The program aims to strengthen the U.S.-Korea relationship by providing relevant policy recommendations and promoting dialogue on sensitive bilateral, regional, and global issues facing the two countries. The program acknowledges the generous support it has received from the Smith Richardson Foundation and South Korean private sponsors, including the Pantech Corporation, the Doosan Corporation, and the Korea International Trade Association.

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