[KS] Re: first message

[T.Han]

At least, I attended two thesis presentations at the University of Hawaii,
insisting the North Korean regime would collapse. Although one was better
in presentation style (he used color transparancies and computer generated
graphics!) than the other, their arguments were not telling me anything.
One professor who attended presentations told the audiences and presenters
that that kind of thesis was what political scientist/policy maker had to
avoid. I agreed.

Political scientists are not fortune tellers although some try to predict
what will happen in the regime. Without persuasive evidences or signs, the
thesis is not going to tell us anything. Are there any persuasive
evidences? Popular evidences/arguments are the "collapse" of East
Germany and Eastern European communism in general. If you missed the
falacy of the domono theory (or just argument) during the Vietnam War
era, here you go again. Please read the history of North Korea, and then
you will have a second thought.

Another popular argument is internal instability one which I do not agree.
Read the contemporary history of South Korea. In 1960, there was a student
revolution, and a military coup followed. President Park was killed in
1979, and another coup occured in 1980. You maight have heard major scale
of uprising and bloody killings of civilians in Kwangju. Now the South
Korean regime is under IMF control, and South Korean politicians are busy
to take their pieces of pie. How much more instability do you want to 
see? But the South Korean regime survived, and North Korea did not invade
South Korea.

I fully understand the situation in North Korea is pretty bad. What I am
confused is how the internal starvation of the people correlates with the
collapse of the regime. There are numerous examples of the regimes which
survive with poverty and starvation. Then why not North Korea which is in
much better shape than some African countries and Iraq?

A common policy mistake very often comes from misperceptions or biases of
policy makers. If you remember many fiascos in American foreign policy,
your thesis may be a replica of past mistakes. Good day.

Taehwan Han 


On Tue, 15 Dec 1998, Thomas Zeh wrote:

> Hi everybody,
> 
> this is my first message to the list, actually the first time i am using 
> a list at all and i am looking for some assistance for my final paper at 
> the Political Science Department in Marburg.
> I am writing about the current situation in North Korea and my main 
> thesis is that the regime will collapse soon. As a consequence, South 
> Korea might unify the country in an attempt to halt chaos, anarchy and 
> mass migration. I like to focus mainly on two aspects, the first one is 
> the reaction of the main actors, such as China, Russia, Japan and the US 
> and the second aspect is what South Korea can learn from German 
> experience.
> It would be a great help for me to find out if there are other 
> scientists or projects dealing with a similar topic (i have heard about 
> a project in Berlin, but don't have any details).
> Thank you for all your replies
> 
> Thomas Zeh
> 
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